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As the U.S. presidential election approaches, a potential Trump victory raises concerns among elites due to the uncertainty it brings, contrasting with Harris's status quo stance. Analysts warn that a Republican sweep could lead to market volatility, higher inflation, and a stronger dollar, prompting investors to sell into any post-election rally. Additionally, a Trump win may trigger forex market fluctuations, with China possibly devaluing the renminbi to safeguard its exports.
Chinese launch startup Cosmoleap has raised over 100 million yuan to develop its Yueqian reusable rocket, featuring a recovery system inspired by SpaceX. The company aims for a test flight in 2025 or 2026, targeting satellite Internet support, with a larger rocket planned for around 2030. Investors believe Cosmoleap can leverage the growing commercial space supply chain in China.
The SMI showed resilience amid a technical recovery, while UBS and Polypeptide faced declines, and Tecan experienced pressure. In China, the Caixin/S&P Global PMI for manufacturing improved in October, indicating a gradual economic recovery, though challenges in the labor market and subdued prices persist. Achieving the 2024 growth target hinges on boosting consumer demand and household disposable income, according to economist Wang Zhe. The Shanghai Stock Exchange rose 0.6% to 3,299.61 points, with major companies' index up 0.9% to 3,924.96 points.
Zeekr reported a remarkable 92% increase in EV deliveries in October, reaching a record 25,049 vehicles, surpassing its previous high of 21,333 in September. The Geely-backed automaker aims for 230,000 deliveries in 2024, needing over 31,000 in the final two months of the year. Meanwhile, Xpeng also achieved a personal best with 23,917 deliveries, while Li Auto delivered 51,443 cars, slightly below its September record.
China's 14th NPC Standing Committee will meet from November 4-8, 2024, amid pressures to meet a 5% GDP growth target. Authorities are expected to discuss fiscal measures to stabilize the economy, with markets hoping for direct stimulus to boost consumption. The Hang Seng Index is currently in a consolidation phase, with key levels at 20,300 and 21,200, indicating potential volatility based on the meeting's outcomes.
UBS Asset Management has launched its first tokenized investment fund, the "UBS USD Money Market Investment Fund Token," utilizing Ethereum's distributed ledger technology. This initiative reflects the growing demand for tokenized financial assets and is part of UBS's broader blockchain efforts, including a pilot tokenized Variable Capital Company fund in collaboration with Singapore's Monetary Authority.
ASEAN is emerging as a key beneficiary of escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, according to the IMF. The region has strengthened trade and investment ties with both superpowers, increasing its market share of imports and attracting foreign direct investment, despite some members experiencing slower export growth. However, the IMF cautions that rising geopolitical pressures could pose risks to future growth, particularly through potential global economic fragmentation.
Goldman Sachs economists suggest that increased U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods could hinder growth in China but also prompt a necessary shift towards consumer spending. To counteract the impact of higher tariffs, Beijing may enhance fiscal support to stimulate domestic demand, building on existing government stimulus measures.
Global stock markets are declining due to disappointing earnings from tech giants Microsoft and Meta, alongside pre-election uncertainties. The US economy grew by 2.8% in Q3, missing forecasts, while job openings fell significantly. Key upcoming events include the US presidential election and interest rate decisions from the RBA and FOMC.
The SMI is up in pre-market trading, while Wall Street faces pressure following disappointing tech results. Estee Lauder's shares have plummeted due to weak business in China, despite a rise in the Caixin/S&P Global PMI for manufacturing, indicating a slow economic recovery. Economists suggest that achieving China's 2024 growth target hinges on boosting consumer demand and household disposable income. The Shanghai Stock Exchange rose 0.6%, with major companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen gaining 0.9%.
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10:46 01.11.2024
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